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| RAUF |
No doubt, Ogbeni Abdulrauf Adesoji
Aregbesola has done wonderfully well as the governor of Osun, this is acknowledged
by foes & friends alike. But history has taught us the world over, in
Nigeria and in the south west in particular that performance alone don’t win you
re–elections. There are salient other factors that determine how the people
vote to re- elect or throw out their leader. The case of the late chief Bola
Ige’s attempt at getting re-elected as governor of the old oyo state readily comes to mind.
1. CHANGE
One attribute of
all humans is the desire and crave for change. By nature, people usually want
to have a feel of something different whenever they can. This is clearly
demonstrated at elections all over the world. If the change factor
plays out, then Rauf should bid his second term aspiration good bye. Of course
such decision could be perceived to be wrong, but the people can choose to be
wrong, after all democracy is about the people’s wish.
1. HISTORY
History they say
has a way of repeating itself, way back from when Osun was part of the old Oyo
state and till date, the people are known not to have voted for a governor
twice. What people seems not to know is that the same history is playing out
itself in Osun (which was part of the old Oyo) the people of Osun like their
brothers in Oyo have equally not voted for a governor twice in its years of existence.
Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola who would have
been the first to be re-elected was removed by the court of law on the ground
that he never won the election ab-initio. By August 9, 2014, if the people of Osun
decide to keep a date with history, then a new governor will be sworn–in come November
2014.
2. ISLAMIZATION ALLEGATION
The continuous and
persistent accusation that Aregbesola plans to Islamize the state of Osun could
be a cog in the wheel of his second term aspiration. Never in the history of
the state or any other south west state has a governor been so rigorously
accused. You will recall that the leadership of Christian Association of
Nigeria (CAN) addressed a widely publicized press conference to drive home this
accusation. To a keen observer, Aregbesola has no such motive and can possibly
not even think about it. But for a religiously balanced state like Osun to have
a Muslims as Governor, Secretary to the State Government, the Chief of Staff,
Speaker of the state house of assembly, his deputy and other key officers of government, one can quickly agree that questions must be asked.
3. LAGOS INFLUX
Another major factor
that could work against Aregbes re-election is the influx of people from Lagos
as the major actors and players in his government. The right to appoint who
will help the governor run his administration is absolutely his no doubt. But
to the ordinary people of Osun the governors’s action is the highest form of
disdain. This opinion is shared even among his party men and could have a
negative effect on their commitments to his bid.
Moreover, majority of “these Lagosian” have no
electoral value, most of them don’t belong to the party here, and neither do
they have any political constituency. This could deal a big blow to the
re-emergence of Rauf as governor.
4. EKITI ELECTION
Governorship
election in Osun will take place some weeks after that of Ekiti. The outcome of
the Ekiti election will definitely affect the voting pattern in the Osun
election as well. The Yoruba people are known to always join bandwagon politics
and tend to bend towards the same direction at various elections. Historically,
they often embrace a unified political structure across the Yoruba states. The
emergence of Fayemi in Ekiti and Aregbe
in Osun before the 2011 general elections had serious impact on the outcome of
elections in the other state governed by PDP in 2011 (Oyo & Ogun) .
With ACN having
already lost in Ondo, the Ekiti governorship is the litmus test for the
political control of the south west. Should Fayemi be voted out, then Aregbe
and Osun ACN should be prepared to face a daunting task.
5. OVER CONFIDENCE
One major obstacle
to getting re-elected research has shown is over confidence. Leaders who have
performed tend to believe that their performance should speak for them, thus
making them to not commit much effort to the re-election as they did while
seeking for the people’s mandate at first. But the reality on ground shows that
this often backfires.
Aregbesola and his allies at every given
opportunity have always reiterated that “we have done enough to win again” The world is waiting and watching
To say Aregbesola perform in Osun state is not a statement of fact using all the indexis of mesuring performances(1)tilldate amost 3years to his tenue he has not commission a single project yet what he doing is window dressing Olaiya/Alekuwodo road the road that have been dualised since Isiaka Adeleke time as governor in 1992 he is reawarding fedral government roads at the Detriment of Iwo/Osogbo road because fedral govt will refund the payment of over inflated Gbongan/Erinle road.Ilesha/osogbo road is been done by the fedral govt so also is Gbongan/Iwo road and. Ife/Osu/Ilesha road he kept his signpost on these roads to deceive people. On (education)He has spoilt our eduucational system in such away that Came second in our secondary school certificate examination between 2006-2007 is now taken the bottom position in the fedration.Books were nolonger made available to the children hence mass failure instead it was the promise of nuk (opon imo)NUK in a state where an average teacher have not even been trained in usage of coputer talk less of students.Osun state is a rural society an average village student does not know what an "I T" is students and teachers must be "IT" compliant before introducing such advance Method of learning even in United States and UK such are not common among students it is only in the universities that students use nuks privately and mainly by students in humanities and social sciences I stand to be challenged.On the procurement of school uniform for students their intention to steal money be clouded there sence of judgemment or howelse can you describe the provision of same clothes to all Student in the state ,there is no way to identify student of one school to the other a student in osogbo could claim to be a student in Ilesha there is no diffrence from a student of Fakunle comprehensive high school to that of his conterpart from S't Charlles what a nounscence.not even a school badge to diffrenciate students it is just (kowo pe veentures)this government have stollen too much money That they can not account for how much they have borrowed even when the money from fedration have gone up to about 500% what a government? The type of school they were building were only good in a state like lagos where there were shortage of land and population explosion not osun where land were available in almost all school for even gardening this is just for kowope venture and it rediclous.Our health sectore have been basterdised nothing to write home.what of the numerous traders whose shop have been been brought down in the guise of urban renuwal project to plant grass and flowers to beautify our roads and force the shop owner to go and rent shop from
ReplyDeleteSir if you can go into specifics and write an article about Aregbesola, I will feature that article on my blog and all those blogs I can help get, Just forward the article to dologbenla@gmail.com
DeleteThe way I see everything, I think you are talking from the perspective of what the media has fed you, thanks to tthe insight provided by the comment, though most of the reasons why he will not be re-elected has been highlighted but what I want to correct is the over-performance of his admiinistration.. Stop viewing the state from the specs of the media, it is all propangada. Like I say ACN might be working in other state but the state that I know of Osun State is where palm-oil smeared their white garment. Please stop decieving yourself by praising him because we know who we will not vote for the only thing we don't know now is who we will vote for. Osun o ti dara sugbon o ma to dara oo
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